KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · COMPANIES

Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027?

YES · live

13.0¢

NO · live

87.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxacqannounceebay-27jan01-jan01 · fresh · feed 58s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

72.22%

max drawdown

7.69%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

7.26%

RMS drawdown

pain index

6.85%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.03%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

7.69%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

137

store

spread

800.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxacqannounceebay-27jan01-jan01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING58.0s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

13.0¢

NO · live

87.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.556 / 1.00 bits (56%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

12.9%13.0¢7.69×▬ +0.00pp

87.1%87.5¢1.14×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

58.0s

·ticker

KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01

▲YES bid

12.00¢

▲YES ask

13.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$3.2k

◐open interest $

$733.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01
Event ticker: KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01
YES bid / ask: 12.00¢ / 13.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 87.00¢ / 88.00¢
Last YES: 13.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $3.21k
Volume total: $245.14k
Open interest: $733.38k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z · 194.8d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (520 bars · effective 345133 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 194.8 d · σ/bar 0.489pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 33.45ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1131 · n = 520✓ n = 520

μ per bar

-0.008pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.489pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.40pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move195d

33.45pp

σ × √4674.633488611111

Terminal variancebinary

0.1131

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

13.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.81pp · ES₉₅ 1.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 520

VaR 95%

0.81pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.02pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

29.4pp

peak 17.0¢ → trough 12.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

13.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

7.692

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+669

$100 wins $669

FractionalUK

6.69 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$669.23

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.557 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.557 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.94 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.20 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 10:20:01 UTC
Snapshot age: 58.0s
SHA-256 attestation: fafd043262baee0a3ec32aeb52ec1d34f6cf24f8b93ab9b0f2c018c6034d2335 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 520 barsperiods/year ≈ 345.1K

Realized vol (annualised)

1941.28%

σ per bar = 0.033044

Mean return (annualised)

-17839.46%

μ per bar = -0.000517

Sharpe (rf=0)

-9.19

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

29.41%

peak 0.17 → trough 0.12 over 68 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxacqannounceebay-27jan01-jan01/risk · same metrics, JSON