TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “washington · liberty · york” (4 markets)
Top terms: washingtonlibertyyorkmysticsnewnationals
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?0.4¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
- ★ Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty0.1¢ YES · $319.9k 24h
- Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5)99.5¢ YES · $34.0k 24h
- Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.50.1¢ YES · $22.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.315 | 31 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.495 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · wnba-wsh-nyl-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
526.47%
max drawdown
99.52%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
58.64%
RMS drawdown
pain index
39.70%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
99.52%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.09
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.09
upside/downside
roll spread
92.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
361
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-wnba-wsh-nyl-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →