TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “election · 2028 · us” (17 markets)
Top terms: election2028uspresidentpoliticswin
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?5.6¢ YES · $39.6k 24h
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
- Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $26.6k 24h
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $142.9k 24h
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $37.4k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $35.4k 24h
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $50.6k 24h
- Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $136.5k 24h
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $49.2k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $33.4k 24h
- Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $36.4k 24h
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $46.8k 24h
- ★ Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $464.4k 24h
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $36.2k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $45.1k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.918 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.463 | 49 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.282 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.209 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.209 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.209 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.209 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.208 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -13.33%
realized vol (ann.)
2.96%
max drawdown
13.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.64%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
13.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-13.33%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -13.33%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →