TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “house · party · midterm” (3 markets)
Top terms: housepartymidtermelectionscontrolbalance
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House17.5¢ YES · $28.8k 24h
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?80.5¢ YES · $69.8k 24h
- ★ Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?19.5¢ YES · $78.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.693 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.863 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-the-republican-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections · fresh · feed 8s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 11.43%
realized vol (ann.)
51.27%
max drawdown
5.13%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.26%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
11.43%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +11.43%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-the-republican-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →