TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “ai · tech · business” (14 markets)

Top terms: aitechbusinessbestmodelend

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $100.1k 24h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $100.1k 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?88.4¢ YES · $51.4k 24h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $100.0k 24h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $106.9k 24h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?6.5¢ YES · $29.1k 24h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.2¢ YES · $52.4k 24h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $102.0k 24h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $104.6k 24h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $52.0k 24h
★ Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?4.5¢ YES · $72.3k 24h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?0.9¢ YES · $143.6k 24h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.3¢ YES · $49.1k 24h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $190.4k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-5.473	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-4.436	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-4.151	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-3.838	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-3.792	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-3.792	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-3.792	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	-3.781	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-openai-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old

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sterling

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insufficient

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carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-openai-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →