TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “ai · tech · business” (14 markets)
Top terms: aitechbusinessbestmodelend
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $100.1k 24h
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $100.0k 24h
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?89.3¢ YES · $53.2k 24h
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $100.0k 24h
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $113.8k 24h
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?6.5¢ YES · $32.1k 24h
- ★ Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.3¢ YES · $52.3k 24h
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $102.0k 24h
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $104.6k 24h
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $52.0k 24h
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?4.5¢ YES · $65.7k 24h
- Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?0.5¢ YES · $134.1k 24h
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.4¢ YES · $51.7k 24h
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0.1¢ YES · $191.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.265 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.265 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.195 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.192 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.188 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.188 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.153 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.146 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-meta-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
3.27%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
10.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
410
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-meta-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →