TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “nl · cy · award” (3 markets)
Top terms: nlcyawardyoungsportsbrandon
- Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?0.1¢ YES · $105.5k 24h
- Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?0.4¢ YES · $92.3k 24h
- ★ Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?0.1¢ YES · $109.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.026 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -0.977 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-freddy-peralta-win-the-2026-nl-cy-young-award · fresh · feed 13s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -57.14%
realized vol (ann.)
6.10%
max drawdown
62.50%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
53.26%
RMS drawdown
pain index
49.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
62.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
12.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-57.14%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -57.14%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-freddy-peralta-win-the-2026-nl-cy-young-award/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →