TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “us · president · election” (22 markets)
Top terms: uspresidentelection2028politicstrump
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?0.8¢ YES · $210.0k 24h
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?4.5¢ YES · $193.3k 24h
- Trump out as President before 2027?9.5¢ YES · $44.8k 24h
- Trump out as President by June 30?0.7¢ YES · $169.3k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?0.1¢ YES · $1.15M 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?2.9¢ YES · $1.48M 24h
- ★ Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.6¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $37.0k 24h
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $38.2k 24h
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $136.7k 24h
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $25.4k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $38.8k 24h
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $44.0k 24h
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $47.8k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $35.0k 24h
- Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $37.5k 24h
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $44.4k 24h
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?6.0¢ YES · $26.3k 24h
- Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?99.6¢ YES · $54.3k 24h
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $485.3k 24h
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $40.5k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $50.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.315 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.715 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.479 | 80 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.126 | 146 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.053 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.884 | 146 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.584 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.584 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2.27%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
849
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →