TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “election · president · us” (21 markets)
Top terms: electionpresidentus2028politicstrump
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?4.1¢ YES · $60.5k 24h
- Trump out as President before 2027?10.5¢ YES · $33.8k 24h
- Trump out as President by June 30?0.4¢ YES · $149.4k 24h
- ★ Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.1¢ YES · $34.4k 24h
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $31.3k 24h
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?16.0¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $63.0k 24h
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.5¢ YES · $536.1k 24h
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $25.0k 24h
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2.9¢ YES · $24.9k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $43.2k 24h
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $83.2k 24h
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?15.7¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
- Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $23.8k 24h
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $50.6k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $43.7k 24h
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.1¢ YES · $47.9k 24h
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $24.7k 24h
- Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?21.5¢ YES · $33.8k 24h
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $76.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.157 | 143 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.495 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.383 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.281 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.263 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.853 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.853 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.853 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election · fresh · feed 13s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →