TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “england · croatia · fifa” (3 markets)
Top terms: englandcroatiafifacupworldsports
- England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.543.5¢ YES · $28.0k 24h
- ★ Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.9¢ YES · $2.71M 24h
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?9.7¢ YES · $1.38M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.884 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -1.798 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-croatia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
4.19%
max drawdown
11.76%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.98%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.76%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-croatia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →