TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “french · 2027 · election” (16 markets)
Top terms: french2027electionpresidentpoliticswin
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?1.8¢ YES · $26.3k 24h
- Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $30.9k 24h
- ★ Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?0.5¢ YES · $169.4k 24h
- Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $30.8k 24h
- Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $21.5k 24h
- Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $135.6k 24h
- Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
- Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?0.8¢ YES · $23.2k 24h
- Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $26.3k 24h
- Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $22.9k 24h
- Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $32.2k 24h
- Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
- Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $122.6k 24h
- Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $40.7k 24h
- Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $31.1k 24h
- Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $32.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.945 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-clmence-guett-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
811
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-clmence-guett-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →