TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “china · taiwan · invade” (2 markets)
Top terms: chinataiwaninvadeend202630
- ★ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?6.2¢ YES · $109.6k 24h
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?0.4¢ YES · $222.6k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (1 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.328 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.91%
realized vol (ann.)
2.96%
max drawdown
1.60%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.91%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -3.91%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →