TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “argentina · france · fifa” (7 markets)

Top terms: argentinafrancefifacupworldsports

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-3.752169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.830169no rejection · independent
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.061169no rejection · independent
Will France win on 2026-06-22?-1.377169no rejection · independent
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-0.735169no rejection · independent
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?-0.608169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-argentina-win-group-j-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.34%
realized vol (ann.)
41.85%
max drawdown
2.34%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.34%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.34%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -2.34%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-argentina-win-group-j-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →