TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “traffic · returns · normal” (8 markets)

Top terms: trafficreturnsnormalstraithormuzrussia

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?9.5¢ YES · $313.9k 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?4.5¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
★ Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?82.5¢ YES · $203.6k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?18.5¢ YES · $878.5k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?37.0¢ YES · $85.4k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?50.5¢ YES · $290.9k 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.4¢ YES · $837.3k 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?6.3¢ YES · $193.8k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	-3.851	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	-3.329	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	-2.911	169	no rejection · independent
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	-2.727	169	no rejection · independent
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	-2.540	169	no rejection · independent
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	-2.097	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

76.67%

max drawdown

1.20%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.65%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.55%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.08%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.20%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

1.6 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

149

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →