TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “texas · rangers · boston” (7 markets)

Top terms: texasrangersbostonredsoxspread

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)-3.02727no rejection · independent
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox-2.14727no rejection · independent
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)0.42027no rejection · independent
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.51.30327no rejection · independent
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.51.61827no rejection · independent
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.51.63127no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · mlb-tex-bos-2026-06-14-spread-home-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1151.03%
max drawdown
99.86%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
55.19%
RMS drawdown
pain index
38.79%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
92.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.32
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.32
upside/downside
roll spread
32.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1003
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-mlb-tex-bos-2026-06-14-spread-home-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →