TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “padres · baltimore · orioles” (3 markets)
Top terms: padresbaltimoreoriolesdiegosan10
- ★ San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles100.0¢ YES · $362.8k 24h
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.58.5¢ YES · $87.1k 24h
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.512.0¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.634 | 28 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.502 | 27 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · mlb-sd-bal-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1149.60%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
29.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
133
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-mlb-sd-bal-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →