TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “deal · permanent · peace” (8 markets)
Top terms: dealpermanentpeaceisraelsigniran
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?33.5¢ YES · $24.7k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?0.3¢ YES · $280.7k 24h
- ★ Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?15.7¢ YES · $108.2k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?13.5¢ YES · $56.3k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?6.5¢ YES · $497.1k 24h
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?27.5¢ YES · $40.4k 24h
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?2.5¢ YES · $33.1k 24h
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?99.8¢ YES · $79.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.117 | 110 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.731 | 156 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.548 | 110 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.205 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.580 | 155 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.687 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.456 | 60 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 12.95%
realized vol (ann.)
151.96%
max drawdown
22.60%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.07%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.60%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
19.75%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
12.95%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +12.95%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →