TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “temperature · weather · climate” (23 markets)
Top terms: temperatureweatherclimatehighest20june
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $21.2k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $21.6k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $44.1k 24h
- ★ Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $63.7k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20?99.7¢ YES · $26.7k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $29.4k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?99.8¢ YES · $31.2k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?0.2¢ YES · $40.5k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $24.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $17.8k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $23.7k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $18.0k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $43.0k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $61.4k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20?100.0¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $19.8k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $24.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $27.8k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?100.0¢ YES · $16.6k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $18.7k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $23.9k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20?99.9¢ YES · $19.2k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $21.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.887 | 54 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.559 | 54 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.159 | 54 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.089 | 54 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.584 | 54 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.557 | 54 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.529 | 54 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.438 | 54 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-june-20-2026-27c · fresh · feed 10s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
6.19%
max drawdown
66.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
64.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
62.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
66.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
23.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
802
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-june-20-2026-27c/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →