TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “saudi · arabia · spain” (10 markets)

Top terms: saudiarabiaspainuruguaycaboverde

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)-4.973168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5-4.196168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5-2.81666no rejection · independent
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?-2.488168no rejection · independent
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?-2.316168no rejection · independent
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?-1.984168no rejection · independent
Spread: Spain (-3.5)-1.73267no rejection · independent
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?-1.647168no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ury-cvi-2026-06-21-ury · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1041
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ury-cvi-2026-06-21-ury/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →