TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Japan (-1.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “japan · tunisia · 21” (6 markets)
Top terms: japantunisia2106marketsexact
- Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?23.5¢ YES · $18.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?6.5¢ YES · $17.9k 24h
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?62.5¢ YES · $555.8k 24h
- ★ Spread: Japan (-1.5)35.5¢ YES · $83.5k 24h
- Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.545.5¢ YES · $37.9k 24h
- Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?14.5¢ YES · $43.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (5 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.263 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.769 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.320 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.141 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.811 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21-spread-away-1pt5 · fresh · feed 4s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
58.66%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1018
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21-spread-away-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →