TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “sweden · tunisia · score” (31 markets)
Top terms: swedentunisiascoreexactmarketshalftime
- Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?0.1¢ YES · $896.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $40.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $31.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $111.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $67.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $65.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $85.7k 24h
- ★ Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $215.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $143.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $55.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $86.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $44.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $149.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $54.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia?0.1¢ YES · $73.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?100.0¢ YES · $52.3k 24h
- Tunisia leading at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $28.6k 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $33.3k 24h
- Sweden leading at halftime?100.0¢ YES · $130.1k 24h
- Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)0.1¢ YES · $83.4k 24h
- Spread: Tunisia (-2.5)0.1¢ YES · $33.3k 24h
- Spread: Sweden (-1.5)100.0¢ YES · $964.9k 24h
- Spread: Sweden (-2.5)100.0¢ YES · $587.6k 24h
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?100.0¢ YES · $17.73M 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $111.5k 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5100.0¢ YES · $234.2k 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5100.0¢ YES · $842.8k 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5100.0¢ YES · $437.9k 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5100.0¢ YES · $804.5k 24h
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5100.0¢ YES · $470.0k 24h
- Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?0.1¢ YES · $1.93M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8.577 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.934 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.625 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.802 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.501 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.397 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.907 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.608 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-swe-tun-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
826.51%
max drawdown
99.71%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
59.09%
RMS drawdown
pain index
37.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
99.71%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.38
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.38
upside/downside
roll spread
37.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
778
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-swe-tun-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →