TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · saudi · arabia” (4 markets)
Top terms: spainsaudiarabiawinfifacup
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?87.5¢ YES · $89.1k 24h
- ★ Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?4.0¢ YES · $92.1k 24h
- Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $745.4k 24h
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?13.8¢ YES · $1.99M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (3 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.167 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.676 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.675 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21-ksa · fresh · feed 15s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
4.19%
max drawdown
2.47%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.13%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21-ksa/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →