TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · saudi · arabia” (4 markets)
Top terms: spainsaudiarabiawinfifacup
- ★ Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?87.5¢ YES · $88.9k 24h
- Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?4.0¢ YES · $90.7k 24h
- Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $254.4k 24h
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?13.8¢ YES · $1.86M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (3 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.504 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.446 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.690 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21-esp · fresh · feed 1s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
36.25%
max drawdown
1.13%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.75%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.33
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21-esp/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →