TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “te · ivoire · ecuador” (6 markets)

Top terms: teivoireecuador06germanyhalftime

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (5 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?-3.999168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime?-3.695168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?-3.601168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?-3.410168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?-1.361168no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
3520.23%
max drawdown
20.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
20.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
18.69
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
18.69
upside/downside
roll spread
76.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
709
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →