TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “bosnia · herzegovina · switzerland” (9 markets)
Top terms: bosniaherzegovinaswitzerlandmarkets06total
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?14.5¢ YES · $103.1k 24h
- Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score47.5¢ YES · $49.4k 24h
- ★ Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?62.5¢ YES · $496.7k 24h
- Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners45.5¢ YES · $36.5k 24h
- Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?23.5¢ YES · $148.3k 24h
- Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)35.5¢ YES · $72.4k 24h
- Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.574.5¢ YES · $82.3k 24h
- Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.548.5¢ YES · $81.6k 24h
- Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $841.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.770 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.409 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.306 | 155 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.105 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.712 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.706 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.672 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.648 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-che · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-che/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →