TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “invade · taiwan · china” (4 markets)
Top terms: invadetaiwanchina2027clashmilitary
- ★ China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?8.5¢ YES · $227.5k 24h
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?6.3¢ YES · $121.9k 24h
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?0.4¢ YES · $34.2k 24h
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?12.5¢ YES · $109.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (3 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.999 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.784 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.759 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027 · fresh · feed 3s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 13.33%
realized vol (ann.)
76.92%
max drawdown
10.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
13.33%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +13.33%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →