{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination","type":"pm","now":1781957469068,"market":{"id":"561981","slug":"will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination","question":"Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","yesProb":0.0125,"noProb":0.9875,"liquidity":1130525.94651,"volume24h":36487.572833,"endDate":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781957465584,"ageMs":3484,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":743,"range":{"min":0.0115,"max":0.0125,"span":0.0010000000000000009},"moments":{"mean":0.012427321668909839,"stdev":0.000259782643235829,"cv":0.02090415377963077,"skew":-3.298719486422712,"kurtosis":8.905514857741164,"ci95":{"lo":0.012408641887242057,"hi":0.01244600145057762,"halfWidth":0.000018679781667780997}},"returns":{"mean":0.0000013477088948787074,"stdev":0.000036711154910718166,"annualisedVol":0.0034359758321527555,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":null,"skew":27.239676943749924,"kurtosis":741.9999999999656,"gainToPain":null,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":870.4922561574074,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":20891.814147777775,"perDayMove":0.00017984719479905686,"perHorizonMove":0.0053062306543453,"terminalVariance":0.01234375,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0,"es90":0,"es99":0,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0,"cdar95":0,"drawdownAtRisk95":0,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0,"drawdownPeak":0.0115,"drawdownTrough":0.0115,"drawdownDurationBars":0},"structure":{"hurst":1.2845680082895603,"autocorr1":-0.0013513464357555792,"autocorr2":-0.001353165206194012,"trendT":13.703697885610001,"halfLifeMR":37.08229446630379,"permEntropy":0.011471884912009478,"permEntropyTieFrac":1,"rollSpreadBps":2.1733390934357115},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":17113364.333331738,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":0.006857677169128137,"p":0.9999690524419019,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0.0013604795993928077,"p":0.9214452337463411,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":0.002726467226733167,"p":0.9902027873381719,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":0.004097982730902889,"p":0.9986249679647305,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":0.006857677169128137,"p":0.9999690524419019,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":0.01385505617253576,"p":0.9999999968906629,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-3.5980748326214336,"p":0.006084797475718474,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":2.4905960308356447,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":null,"p":null,"reject":false,"runs":1,"n1":1,"n2":0},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-0.00032036744420205676,"p":0.9997443810813,"reject":false,"vr":0.9999779970735968,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}