{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-norway-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-893","type":"pm","now":1781944408709,"market":{"id":"558951","slug":"will-norway-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-893","question":"Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","yesProb":0.0245,"noProb":0.9755,"liquidity":3361640.40338,"volume24h":1349782.7494410002,"endDate":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781944406142,"ageMs":2567,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":743,"range":{"min":0.0225,"max":0.0295,"span":0.006999999999999999},"moments":{"mean":0.02535397039030936,"stdev":0.0012814274529529047,"cv":0.050541490473724145,"skew":0.7141234285734839,"kurtosis":1.0629292560595096,"ci95":{"lo":0.025261828803226766,"hi":0.025446111977391956,"halfWidth":0.00009214158708259547}},"returns":{"mean":0.000002695417789757415,"stdev":0.0003106186616873212,"annualisedVol":0.029072313774080333,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1.076923076923077,"skew":0.030335516097529325,"kurtosis":28.426049984807026,"gainToPain":1.076923076923077,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":29.643417719907408,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":711.4420252777778,"perDayMove":0.0015217144514402625,"perHorizonMove":0.008285091364667574,"terminalVariance":0.02389975,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0.0010000000000000009,"es95":0.0000362116991643454,"es90":0.0000362116991643454,"es99":0.0011764705882352949,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.1160307572422208,"cdar95":0.1725533078184804,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.16949152542372875,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.20338983050847453,"drawdownPeak":0.0295,"drawdownTrough":0.0235,"drawdownDurationBars":330},"structure":{"hurst":1.0493006441311812,"autocorr1":-0.08050114782249415,"autocorr2":0.02090499761218613,"trendT":2.6118979422051942,"halfLifeMR":21.040859064968142,"permEntropy":0.2698456200073738,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9756756756756757,"rollSpreadBps":69.56741113758554},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":24982.026960207008,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":23.33560158507467,"p":0.0003439742436410764,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":4.827950163128737,"p":0.026470665257331105,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":5.153971005831126,"p":0.07404208158822068,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":10.424710064526879,"p":0.015265328889214502,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":23.33560158507467,"p":0.0003439742436410764,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":32.86877275292522,"p":0.00031916830973521826,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-3.671066344661492,"p":0.004903978641885266,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":0.9692061271598105,"p":0.002784829537886368,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":0.4457745129885155,"p":0.655760189243263,"reject":false,"runs":26,"n1":24,"n2":23},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-2.0145239167833267,"p":0.04395441739577022,"reject":true,"vr":0.8616419293512602,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}