{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination","type":"pm","now":1781789003305,"market":{"id":"559695","slug":"will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination","question":"Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","yesProb":0.0175,"noProb":0.9825,"liquidity":357155.64579,"volume24h":22133.125957,"endDate":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781788992297,"ageMs":11008,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0175,"max":0.0215,"span":0.003999999999999997},"moments":{"mean":0.020470430107526798,"stdev":0.0010320238856861017,"cv":0.050415349372978514,"skew":-0.3680562663554607,"kurtosis":-0.9352944836742916,"ci95":{"lo":0.02039627187804699,"hi":0.020544588337006606,"halfWidth":0.00007415822947980693}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0000013458950201884219,"stdev":0.00009711924829538531,"annualisedVol":0.009089863579376523,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.7500000000000004,"skew":-1.4335101310040956,"kurtosis":103.80850135693738,"gainToPain":0.7500000000000004,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":872.4420913773148,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":20938.610193055556,"perDayMove":0.0004757852050527179,"perHorizonMove":0.014053329797950891,"terminalVariance":0.01719375,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0.000005405405405405401,"es90":0.000005405405405405401,"es99":0.000005405405405405401,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.04459674102836264,"cdar95":0.10697674418604655,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.09302325581395342,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.18604651162790684,"drawdownPeak":0.0215,"drawdownTrough":0.0175,"drawdownDurationBars":492},"structure":{"hurst":1.2200290058505265,"autocorr1":-0.00038487421058079326,"autocorr2":-0.0003851330365462142,"trendT":3.9091058589472283,"halfLifeMR":528.5264687074217,"permEntropy":0.0625270798307616,"permEntropyTieFrac":1,"rollSpreadBps":1.8634037668558887},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":333867.8165022056,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":0.0005555101599798594,"p":0.9999916282457966,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0.00011050420474666907,"p":0.9392032082548805,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":0.0002213064156346733,"p":0.9941761035917343,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":0.0003324075383070891,"p":0.999371379408004,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":0.0005555101599798594,"p":0.9999916282457966,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":15.314156344384756,"p":0.12038137087654577,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-0.37727984944622145,"p":0.9084756960207809,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":2.5232790267299263,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":-2.0615528128088303,"p":0.03925019836463517,"reject":true,"runs":2,"n1":3,"n2":4},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-1.5403548551178792,"p":0.12347391073352876,"reject":false,"vr":0.894279210647368,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}