{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-ivory-coast-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup","type":"pm","now":1781956853555,"market":{"id":"558966","slug":"will-ivory-coast-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup","question":"Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","yesProb":0.0045,"noProb":0.9955,"liquidity":9636076.27132,"volume24h":1468103.729,"endDate":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781956844807,"ageMs":8748,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":743,"range":{"min":0.0025,"max":0.0065,"span":0.004},"moments":{"mean":0.003723418573351272,"stdev":0.001053112775836618,"cv":0.28283491503582453,"skew":0.34959703381608415,"kurtosis":-0.9645936595472651,"ci95":{"lo":0.0036476940504226144,"hi":0.0037991430962799294,"halfWidth":0.00007572452292865762}},"returns":{"mean":0.0000013477088948787057,"stdev":0.00016833972258864372,"annualisedVol":0.015755734730018164,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1.125,"skew":3.663463434318105,"kurtosis":73.10623735646307,"gainToPain":1.125,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":29.49938015046296,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":707.985123611111,"perDayMove":0.0008246928475676968,"perHorizonMove":0.004479181629210396,"terminalVariance":0.00447975,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0.0005899999999999934,"es95":0.0000108843537414966,"es90":0.0000108843537414966,"es99":0.001,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.23332666962852552,"cdar95":0.36363636363636337,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.3636363636363636,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.3636363636363636,"drawdownPeak":0.0055,"drawdownTrough":0.0035,"drawdownDurationBars":164},"structure":{"hurst":1.2699755194654427,"autocorr1":-0.14293057876316895,"autocorr2":-0.1429306652601136,"trendT":26.226434874283655,"halfLifeMR":55.41088864422791,"permEntropy":0.09675441392626162,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9878378378378379,"rollSpreadBps":342.0822676616935},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":166894.52924734715,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":47.39474290845663,"p":1.8387546374398767e-8,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":15.219799716563669,"p":0.0001548320908946188,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":30.460185175997584,"p":9.2407680518658e-7,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":45.69370280806024,"p":5.81014902856225e-9,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":47.39474290845663,"p":1.8387546374398767e-8,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":55.91855084982023,"p":4.466797065560968e-8,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-2.1226212473779418,"p":0.24474114692585758,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":6.133211286544062,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":1.3641205013737023,"p":0.17252976527527997,"reject":false,"runs":11,"n1":7,"n2":8},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-4.120883903097075,"p":0.00003776326843030198,"reject":true,"vr":0.7169765315517554,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}