{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-clmence-guett-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","type":"pm","now":1781780813890,"market":{"id":"679053","slug":"will-clmence-guett-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","question":"Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?","yesProb":0.0055,"noProb":0.9945,"liquidity":403039.087,"volume24h":169414.9696,"endDate":"2027-04-30T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781780801844,"ageMs":12046,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0045,"max":0.0075,"span":0.003},"moments":{"mean":0.006467069892473045,"stdev":0.0009327618669078746,"cv":0.14423253226217742,"skew":0.06362929519657029,"kurtosis":-1.8333863360127656,"ci95":{"lo":0.006400044342448899,"hi":0.006534095442497191,"halfWidth":0.00006702555002414596}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0000026917900403768505,"stdev":0.00010050154831060564,"annualisedVol":0.009406429515197679,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.42857142857142866,"skew":-7.573903623040095,"kurtosis":290.8134351416973,"gainToPain":0.42857142857142866,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":315.53687627314815,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":7572.885030555555,"perDayMove":0.0004923550234413131,"perHorizonMove":0.008745878389781258,"terminalVariance":0.00546975,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0.000004716981132075472,"es90":0.000004716981132075472,"es99":0.000004716981132075472,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.1855116596502465,"cdar95":0.26707193515704086,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.26666666666666666,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.4,"drawdownPeak":0.0075,"drawdownTrough":0.0045,"drawdownDurationBars":402},"structure":{"hurst":1.3391222930615068,"autocorr1":-0.40100662361140554,"autocorr2":-0.0007202598833009976,"trendT":-60.77787361373585,"halfLifeMR":116.98877957306877,"permEntropy":0.040844501563297365,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9973009446693657,"rollSpreadBps":196.9535512672456},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":2625325.8008998325,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":119.96371858618306,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":119.96215904673556,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":119.9625465767381,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":119.96293567288386,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":119.96371858618306,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":119.96570367447512,"p":0,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-1.494630196724869,"p":0.5358903825119672,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":9.804897624437197,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":null,"p":null,"reject":false,"runs":3,"n1":1,"n2":3},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-8.756358808325475,"p":0,"reject":true,"vr":0.39901564759881425,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}