{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-canada-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-755","type":"pm","now":1781956858616,"market":{"id":"558952","slug":"will-canada-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-755","question":"Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","yesProb":0.0035,"noProb":0.9965,"liquidity":8535318.18627,"volume24h":2473569.025282,"endDate":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781956844807,"ageMs":13809,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":743,"range":{"min":0.0025,"max":0.0045,"span":0.0019999999999999996},"moments":{"mean":0.00336675639300134,"stdev":0.0005189260147359358,"cv":0.15413233218021227,"skew":-0.16800227792302908,"kurtosis":0.4020237845634034,"ci95":{"lo":0.0033294427967723596,"hi":0.0034040699892303205,"halfWidth":0.000037313596228980386}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0000013477088948787057,"stdev":0.00008213293831433962,"annualisedVol":0.007687221820127785,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.6666666666666667,"skew":-2.3929521432467062,"kurtosis":146.3137223892118,"gainToPain":0.6666666666666667,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":29.499321574074074,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":707.9837177777778,"perDayMove":0.00040236757989123675,"perHorizonMove":0.0021853902188897693,"terminalVariance":0.0034877500000000004,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0.000004054054054054054,"es90":0.000004054054054054054,"es99":0.000004054054054054054,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.27694656553717506,"cdar95":0.4444444444444433,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.44444444444444436,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.44444444444444436,"drawdownPeak":0.0045,"drawdownTrough":0.0025,"drawdownDurationBars":105},"structure":{"hurst":1.3886353814135577,"autocorr1":-0.0002699778131288629,"autocorr2":-0.0002703411749231147,"trendT":-24.72156920049565,"halfLifeMR":43.84847193606423,"permEntropy":0.050255874902643174,"permEntropyTieFrac":1,"rollSpreadBps":8.022197289321962},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":662563.0332294289,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":0.0002737157485662834,"p":0.9999932648183101,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0.00005430186968166987,"p":0.941744239815565,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":0.00010882358552343255,"p":0.994659789267528,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":0.00016356593976898928,"p":0.9994482468284016,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":0.0002737157485662834,"p":0.9999932648183101,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":30.224431921498965,"p":0.0008452738403288418,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-2.7106020769475614,"p":0.07575826259524801,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":5.004550889697977,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":0.6546536707079772,"p":0.5126906337634385,"reject":false,"runs":4,"n1":2,"n2":3},"varianceRatio":{"stat":0.047299070162060815,"p":0.9622747350709717,"reject":false,"vr":1.0032485134758546,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}