{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-byron-donalds-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination","type":"pm","now":1781789049983,"market":{"id":"561986","slug":"will-byron-donalds-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination","question":"Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","yesProb":0.0075,"noProb":0.9925,"liquidity":1651044.49759,"volume24h":36918.326989,"endDate":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781789046367,"ageMs":3616,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0075,"max":0.0085,"span":0.0010000000000000009},"moments":{"mean":0.00797311827956999,"stdev":0.000499612724299357,"cv":0.06266214883322944,"skew":0.10790028590736422,"kurtosis":-1.9937242575231378,"ci95":{"lo":0.007937217564893224,"hi":0.008009018994246756,"halfWidth":0.00003590071467676515}},"returns":{"mean":0,"stdev":0.0000734223098214353,"annualisedVol":0.006871951664305415,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1,"skew":0,"kurtosis":183.99391618338987,"gainToPain":1,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":872.4415511226852,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":20938.597226944443,"perDayMove":0.0003596943895981087,"perHorizonMove":0.01062433691653944,"terminalVariance":0.00744375,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0.0000026990553306342804,"es90":0.0000026990553306342804,"es99":0.0000026990553306342804,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.08385722881967536,"cdar95":0.11764705882352912,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.11764705882352951,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.11764705882352951,"drawdownPeak":0.0085,"drawdownTrough":0.0075,"drawdownDurationBars":95},"structure":{"hurst":1.4021347723568975,"autocorr1":0,"autocorr2":0,"trendT":-32.28980325794264,"halfLifeMR":63.851475513168516,"permEntropy":0.041632707634439645,"permEntropyTieFrac":1,"rollSpreadBps":0},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":1048056.0235844884,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":0,"p":0.9999970840780543,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0,"p":0.9505199383665665,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":0,"p":0.9961695747156563,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":0,"p":0.9996655599303261,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":0,"p":0.9999970840780543,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":0,"p":0.9999999999728011,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-2.005484156743488,"p":0.29354826802354667,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":7.431244557733091,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":1.224744871391589,"p":0.22067149635775207,"reject":false,"runs":4,"n1":2,"n2":2},"varianceRatio":{"stat":0.05914761005638803,"p":0.9528343965353785,"reject":false,"vr":1.0040595399188095,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}