{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-bukayo-saka-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup","type":"pm","now":1781780807509,"market":{"id":"2069669","slug":"will-bukayo-saka-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup","question":"Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","yesProb":0.0015,"noProb":0.9985,"liquidity":77460.1515,"volume24h":1035035.4209769988,"endDate":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781780801844,"ageMs":5665,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0015,"max":0.019,"span":0.017499999999999998},"moments":{"mean":0.009199596774193531,"stdev":0.004307511652214064,"cv":0.46822831021218053,"skew":0.16803469843535454,"kurtosis":-1.2063754416173729,"ci95":{"lo":0.008890071537401685,"hi":0.009509122010985378,"halfWidth":0.00030952523679184715}},"returns":{"mean":-0.00001884253028263796,"stdev":0.0007367300490660171,"annualisedVol":0.06895415438625949,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.8578680203045684,"skew":1.5579802720047586,"kurtosis":26.18258436160027,"gainToPain":0.8578680203045684,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":31.536950127314814,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":756.8868030555556,"perDayMove":0.0036092253967747127,"perHorizonMove":0.020268604589772747,"terminalVariance":0.0014977500000000002,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.001,"var99":0.002,"es95":0.0017894736842105272,"es90":0.0011481481481481488,"es99":0.003090909090909091,"esTailConcentration":2.0292898590770916,"ulcerIndex":0.5552107261951452,"cdar95":0.8365231259968101,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.7894736842105263,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.9210526315789473,"drawdownPeak":0.019,"drawdownTrough":0.0015,"drawdownDurationBars":633},"structure":{"hurst":0.9036120295951692,"autocorr1":-0.18439899274286572,"autocorr2":0.011137549699238568,"trendT":-49.42902566050861,"halfLifeMR":49.32179098010158,"permEntropy":0.5622796019061982,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.8623481781376519,"rollSpreadBps":688.2428518539685},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":21523.376747306473,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":31.861557188951284,"p":0.000010160835977157667,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":25.36636691772951,"p":0.0000022939177443115355,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":25.459029881884277,"p":0.000007192347196705029,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":31.11330352901938,"p":0.0000020100102329223546,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":31.861557188951284,"p":0.000010160835977157667,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":43.03408345287565,"p":0.000006744610621223224,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-2.2251908130433726,"p":0.20200382789859475,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":9.002746821296455,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":4.1696143605270946,"p":0.00003052984274942716,"reject":true,"runs":99,"n1":61,"n2":92},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-4.460365947533589,"p":0.000008189165922933839,"reject":true,"vr":0.6938670286212949,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}