{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-bitcoin-reach-70000-in-june-2026-from-june-2","type":"pm","now":1781955428641,"market":{"id":"2420093","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-70000-in-june-2026-from-june-2","question":"Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?","yesProb":0.085,"noProb":0.915,"liquidity":78409.6308,"volume24h":65173.455934999976,"endDate":"2026-07-01T04:00:00Z","category":"Crypto"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781955422513,"ageMs":6128,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":427,"range":{"min":0.055,"max":0.755,"span":0.7},"moments":{"mean":0.2620257611241218,"stdev":0.14370575633992247,"cv":0.5484413277664288,"skew":1.5126155195285658,"kurtosis":2.365625272850452,"ci95":{"lo":0.24839511952802867,"hi":0.2756564027202149,"halfWidth":0.01363064159609311}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0015727699530516436,"stdev":0.021844167030364927,"annualisedVol":2.0445020096038604,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.7831715210355998,"skew":0.5750613234414516,"kurtosis":6.572515861956291,"gainToPain":0.7831715210355998,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":10.682538877314816,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":256.3809330555556,"perDayMove":0.10701412616104272,"perHorizonMove":0.3497666122383178,"terminalVariance":0.07777500000000001,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.037499999999999825,"var99":0.06749999999999996,"es95":0.05431818181818184,"es90":0.036206896551724155,"es99":0.07600000000000001,"esTailConcentration":1.197144093466031,"ulcerIndex":0.6800606509768571,"cdar95":0.8957426679280981,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.8874172185430464,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.9271523178807947,"drawdownPeak":0.755,"drawdownTrough":0.055,"drawdownDurationBars":403},"structure":{"hurst":0.9307971435554576,"autocorr1":0.04897369459078542,"autocorr2":-0.01614930122208151,"trendT":-10.588113646776073,"halfLifeMR":28.93629948194344,"permEntropy":0.9576796710710089,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.41037735849056606,"rollSpreadBps":0},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":790.2432567390848,"p":2.5168487562026647e-172,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":8.972162917047347,"p":0.10906235377393314,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":1.0289402948859092,"p":0.3114748771465252,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":1.1410891855227596,"p":0.5708236179711277,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":6.497818880525652,"p":0.08821659397358306,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":8.972162917047347,"p":0.10906235377393314,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":19.753041748490354,"p":0.031602695220921406,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-3.2439185064772724,"p":0.019003943234970698,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":1.585562255620791,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":-0.9593639491574832,"p":0.33737541765672385,"reject":false,"runs":124,"n1":117,"n2":148},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-0.04545423315380219,"p":0.963745121573599,"reject":false,"vr":0.9958799398362908,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}