{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-belete-molla-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","type":"pm","now":1781780807053,"market":{"id":"2063129","slug":"will-belete-molla-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","question":"Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?","yesProb":0.0015,"noProb":0.9985,"liquidity":12869.29861,"volume24h":4059708.218,"endDate":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781780801844,"ageMs":5209,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0005,"max":0.0065,"span":0.006},"moments":{"mean":0.0018978494623655665,"stdev":0.001552030129345242,"cv":0.8177835809014697,"skew":1.1730895186968842,"kurtosis":0.9086575694756567,"ci95":{"lo":0.0017863250993271646,"hi":0.0020093738254039683,"halfWidth":0.00011152436303840179}},"returns":{"mean":-6.729475100942126e-7,"stdev":0.0002666293133475375,"annualisedVol":0.02495513636205843,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.9666666666666668,"skew":2.7256135625899574,"kurtosis":85.44344391222738,"gainToPain":0.9666666666666668,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":0,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":0,"perDayMove":0.0013062115363402299,"perHorizonMove":0.0002666293133475375,"terminalVariance":0.0014977500000000002,"resolvedFrom":null,"available":false},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0.0007899999999999967,"es95":0.000020491803278688525,"es90":0.000020491803278688525,"es99":0.0015625,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.5571208952579386,"cdar95":0.8000000000000043,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.8,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.8,"drawdownPeak":0.0025,"drawdownTrough":0.0005,"drawdownDurationBars":237},"structure":{"hurst":1.2584430791930257,"autocorr1":0.09004158047422339,"autocorr2":0.028461697932092182,"trendT":5.306457059674895,"halfLifeMR":46.816179628617085,"permEntropy":0.1767925555976386,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.99055330634278,"rollSpreadBps":0},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":226933.8084446215,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":11.181980028506345,"p":0.047411836325042644,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":6.048217495458709,"p":0.013377334815353192,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":6.653347223270526,"p":0.035012238972371046,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":6.720916077119334,"p":0.07991923659628997,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":11.181980028506345,"p":0.047411836325042644,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":15.951216662408301,"p":0.10047535188031775,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-2.3387837390130617,"p":0.16800478264321714,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":1.8970911497472482,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":0.45551596600015576,"p":0.6487381289137297,"reject":false,"runs":14,"n1":11,"n2":13},"varianceRatio":{"stat":1.653057325246129,"p":0.09831916127940277,"reject":false,"vr":1.11345601611831,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}