{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-argentina-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-245","type":"pm","now":1781955394685,"market":{"id":"558938","slug":"will-argentina-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-245","question":"Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","yesProb":0.1175,"noProb":0.8825,"liquidity":8203774.8962,"volume24h":677681.9250500007,"endDate":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781955386545,"ageMs":8140,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":743,"range":{"min":0.0785,"max":0.1285,"span":0.05},"moments":{"mean":0.08886810228802192,"stdev":0.010357105847778316,"cv":0.11654469467808472,"skew":2.00429250869105,"kurtosis":3.0431836784249158,"ci95":{"lo":0.0881233701783753,"hi":0.08961283439766854,"halfWidth":0.00074473210964663}},"returns":{"mean":0.00004447439353099729,"stdev":0.0014127968953443263,"annualisedVol":0.13223054409345977,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1.3707865168539324,"skew":4.591109805254988,"kurtosis":108.97292196001027,"gainToPain":1.3707865168539324,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":29.516265219907407,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":708.3903652777777,"perDayMove":0.006921263007563692,"perHorizonMove":0.03760244240677883,"terminalVariance":0.10369375,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0.0030000000000000027,"es95":0.0001273247496423462,"es90":0.0001273247496423462,"es99":0.005500000000000002,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.06283690173729821,"cdar95":0.16042780748663094,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.16042780748663102,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.16042780748663102,"drawdownPeak":0.0935,"drawdownTrough":0.0785,"drawdownDurationBars":38},"structure":{"hurst":0.9861618617126858,"autocorr1":-0.27431423952699757,"autocorr2":-0.022630749789030475,"trendT":18.599372476226876,"halfLifeMR":160.8981332504907,"permEntropy":0.3512204965618884,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9405405405405406,"rollSpreadBps":166.64076204126198},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":369745.1196286986,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":57.36413174347085,"p":3.5226221939410607e-10,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":56.06028964441586,"p":4.960631905248647e-11,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":56.442359704847874,"p":5.0217385805240156e-11,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":56.459219184653975,"p":9.422951308124539e-11,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":57.36413174347085,"p":3.5226221939410607e-10,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":68.76031961241198,"p":2.8893087922199356e-10,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-0.8538259821295264,"p":0.8037613995047613,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":3.492413974024748,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":-0.16480515921124983,"p":0.8690973347773787,"reject":false,"runs":37,"n1":43,"n2":32},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-6.252539553230052,"p":4.0554115621205256e-10,"reject":true,"vr":0.570573820428418,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}