{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","type":"pm","now":1781789011996,"market":{"id":"561237","slug":"will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","question":"Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","yesProb":0.0155,"noProb":0.9845,"liquidity":506565.43481,"volume24h":57637.84389,"endDate":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781789010324,"ageMs":1672,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0155,"max":0.0165,"span":0.0010000000000000009},"moments":{"mean":0.016481182795699063,"stdev":0.00013597046201569096,"cv":0.008250042712418302,"skew":-7.096832315111209,"kurtosis":48.49538608552106,"ci95":{"lo":0.01647141235446753,"hi":0.016490953236930596,"halfWidth":0.000009770441231533574}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0000013458950201884265,"stdev":0.00006357132065598414,"annualisedVol":0.005949949597696317,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.5,"skew":-5.196271544244867,"kurtosis":246.1080132279122,"gainToPain":0.5,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":872.4419907870371,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":20938.60777888889,"perDayMove":0.000311434595764027,"perHorizonMove":0.009198883836599836,"terminalVariance":0.01525975,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0.000002695417789757415,"es90":0.000002695417789757415,"es99":0.000002695417789757415,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.00831368577528386,"cdar95":0.001140436624307593,"drawdownAtRisk95":0,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.060606060606060656,"drawdownPeak":0.0165,"drawdownTrough":0.0155,"drawdownDurationBars":18},"structure":{"hurst":1.393861531438664,"autocorr1":-0.0004494371162568077,"autocorr2":-0.0004500411984023142,"trendT":-3.7665891864608034,"halfLifeMR":8.349646027856487,"permEntropy":0.032274805211519056,"permEntropyTieFrac":1,"rollSpreadBps":1.636554839797762},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":1878463.717968308,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":83.41357644290953,"p":1.6431300764452317e-14,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0.00015068813290225488,"p":0.9378572159031846,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":0.0003019855184911646,"p":0.9939105184769919,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":83.41327078209736,"p":5.551115123125783e-15,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":83.41357644290953,"p":1.6431300764452317e-14,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":83.41435145043617,"p":9.301448500309561e-13,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-4.537229002366817,"p":0.00037903132235071193,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":0.4597037207652398,"p":0.05142081001498286,"reject":false,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":null,"p":null,"reject":false,"runs":3,"n1":1,"n2":2},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-2.399947306832308,"p":0.016397417928012192,"reject":true,"vr":0.8352819008944417,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"yes","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}