{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game4","type":"pm","now":1781783726128,"market":{"id":"2584911","slug":"lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game4","question":"LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner","yesProb":0.9995,"noProb":0.0005,"liquidity":110333.07422,"volume24h":251025.54941799978,"endDate":"2026-06-18T12:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781783718043,"ageMs":8085,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":17,"range":{"min":0.265,"max":0.9995,"span":0.7345},"moments":{"mean":0.5484411764705882,"stdev":0.24064814059852907,"cv":0.4387856910146398,"skew":1.1418163946756659,"kurtosis":0.17444504623480173,"ci95":{"lo":0.4340443119705529,"hi":0.6628380409706236,"halfWidth":0.11439686450003533}},"returns":{"mean":0.031218750000000003,"stdev":0.12511767377819435,"annualisedVol":11.710372618964778,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":2.585714285714286,"skew":0.6656757705138642,"kurtosis":2.2754250984070525,"gainToPain":2.585714285714286,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":0.25,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":6,"perDayMove":0.6129489171211577,"perHorizonMove":0.30647445856057887,"terminalVariance":0.000499749999999945,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.08874999999999986,"var99":0.20574999999999996,"es95":0.235,"es90":0.13749999999999998,"es99":0.235,"esTailConcentration":0,"ulcerIndex":0.18810197484656155,"cdar95":0.47,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.422,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.47,"drawdownPeak":0.5,"drawdownTrough":0.265,"drawdownDurationBars":2},"structure":{"hurst":1.0642921897295348,"autocorr1":0.1895911359968274,"autocorr2":-0.16754314622689065,"trendT":4.571007193976755,"halfLifeMR":46.239848253708196,"permEntropy":0.9681905137485698,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.07142857142857142,"rollSpreadBps":0},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":4.633370869505101,"p":0.09859986024652932,"reject":false},"ljungBox":{"stat":2.3752205666364947,"p":0.7971416282639795,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0.6901401378924961,"p":0.411095615579556,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":1.26759465818609,"p":0.5357468694780094,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":2.373768035886658,"p":0.501469805598146,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":2.3752205666364947,"p":0.7971416282639795,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":4.4898808959915115,"p":0.9225490541855614,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-0.09686327494346178,"p":0.946369827710343,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":0.4744786175497799,"p":0.04741472577707661,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":0.7287211282504584,"p":0.46617212742835856,"reject":false,"runs":8,"n1":7,"n2":5},"varianceRatio":{"stat":1.0780880605043173,"p":0.2809945267754457,"reject":false,"vr":1.2695220151260793,"horizon":2}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}