{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-fifwc-tur-par-2026-06-19-tur","type":"pm","now":1781780551844,"market":{"id":"1897127","slug":"fifwc-tur-par-2026-06-19-tur","question":"Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?","yesProb":0.465,"noProb":0.535,"liquidity":677200.6591,"volume24h":181198.17297899997,"endDate":"2026-06-20T03:00:00Z","category":"Türkiye vs. Paraguay"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781780549849,"ageMs":1995,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.42,"max":0.485,"span":0.065},"moments":{"mean":0.44173387096774674,"stdev":0.016866322112534946,"cv":0.03818208930998285,"skew":1.6445527708902101,"kurtosis":1.107816198156375,"ci95":{"lo":0.4405219062031229,"hi":0.44294583573237056,"halfWidth":0.0012119647646238122}},"returns":{"mean":0.000033647375504710664,"stdev":0.002210047753387668,"annualisedVol":0.20684913582837125,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1.416666666666667,"skew":14.209950524721897,"kurtosis":366.4757951329013,"gainToPain":1.416666666666667,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":1.664909212962963,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":39.957821111111116,"perDayMove":0.010826978605968198,"perHorizonMove":0.0139701978538652,"terminalVariance":0.24877499999999997,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0,"es95":0.00008141112618724559,"es90":0.00008141112618724559,"es99":0.00008141112618724559,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.016060796698007338,"cdar95":0.03506995581737854,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.03409090909090912,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.0454545454545455,"drawdownPeak":0.44,"drawdownTrough":0.42,"drawdownDurationBars":265},"structure":{"hurst":1.303281352650616,"autocorr1":-0.1588899233810754,"autocorr2":0.0066654229435428106,"trendT":22.23585012017484,"halfLifeMR":94.38500177105429,"permEntropy":0.09015549377095033,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9946018893387314,"rollSpreadBps":39.912780103443865},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":4182848.5000461107,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":18.866934313687572,"p":0.002171369115659516,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":18.833623855832457,"p":0.00003249238511349173,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":18.86681194915868,"p":0.000120273769899093,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":18.86685257303486,"p":0.00036253551615739177,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":18.866934313687572,"p":0.002171369115659516,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":33.724799143905535,"p":0.00023209101211807415,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-1.5214888761279441,"p":0.5231005351771695,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":5.048169606661799,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":0.3499271061118829,"p":0.7263935341693528,"reject":false,"runs":7,"n1":6,"n2":5},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-3.3317224395107736,"p":0.00086321554162061,"reject":true,"vr":0.7713304015378974,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}