{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-nld","type":"pm","now":1781956715380,"market":{"id":"1897144","slug":"fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-nld","question":"Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?","yesProb":0.575,"noProb":0.425,"liquidity":1973960.9886,"volume24h":1445764.1496230133,"endDate":"2026-06-20T17:00:00Z","category":"Netherlands vs. Sweden"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781956700695,"ageMs":14685,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":743,"range":{"min":0.55,"max":0.605,"span":0.05499999999999994},"moments":{"mean":0.5821467025572056,"stdev":0.01720931114413404,"cv":0.029561811599272847,"skew":-0.752785995225243,"kurtosis":-0.8679964707516037,"ci95":{"lo":0.5809092597056694,"hi":0.5833841454087417,"halfWidth":0.001237442851536118}},"returns":{"mean":0.000020215633423180463,"stdev":0.002874969169698879,"annualisedVol":0.2690823704482681,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1.0666666666666662,"skew":3.4168927515096965,"kurtosis":57.59224295811107,"gainToPain":1.0666666666666662,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":0.25,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":6,"perDayMove":0.014084414983990547,"perHorizonMove":0.0070422074919952735,"terminalVariance":0.245775,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0,"var99":0.010000000000000009,"es95":0.00031380753138075313,"es90":0.00031380753138075313,"es99":0.011153846153846163,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.038904836426651365,"cdar95":0.07211289445137577,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.0677966101694914,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.08264462809917344,"drawdownPeak":0.605,"drawdownTrough":0.555,"drawdownDurationBars":502},"structure":{"hurst":0.9565834574009557,"autocorr1":-0.0735556088335981,"autocorr2":0.016244688615641257,"trendT":4.334568049942031,"halfLifeMR":43.9682145097037,"permEntropy":0.29789335934160555,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9689189189189189,"rollSpreadBps":26.8060003428806},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":103990.2820145646,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":26.271633122381143,"p":0.00010211980794749831,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":4.03079045977171,"p":0.04216570759918126,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":4.227655184167064,"p":0.11830866569865617,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":6.337657159034993,"p":0.09468671399210993,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":26.271633122381143,"p":0.00010211980794749831,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":29.719154956325227,"p":0.0010161664935945947,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-2.558159673758566,"p":0.10348244889453934,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":1.77312460180676,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":2.3892701249063197,"p":0.016881866634368414,"reject":true,"runs":36,"n1":25,"n2":28},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-1.8860342246171218,"p":0.059290211362790224,"reject":false,"vr":0.8704666376400318,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}