{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-fifwc-ger-civ-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-1","type":"pm","now":1781956899987,"market":{"id":"2322936","slug":"fifwc-ger-civ-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-1","question":"Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?","yesProb":0.075,"noProb":0.925,"liquidity":153109.4582,"volume24h":39949.900458000004,"endDate":"2026-06-20T20:00:00Z","category":"Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781956898673,"ageMs":1314,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":714,"range":{"min":0.045,"max":0.5,"span":0.455},"moments":{"mean":0.09907563025210135,"stdev":0.07835475048019776,"cv":0.7908579565007197,"skew":3.9504152154698606,"kurtosis":15.753545444559332,"ci95":{"lo":0.09332821868872546,"hi":0.10482304181547725,"halfWidth":0.005747411563375897}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0005960729312762974,"stdev":0.06625963645205689,"annualisedVol":6.201562169596191,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.9170731707317079,"skew":-0.4587476001432348,"kurtosis":28.15458993944001,"gainToPain":0.9170731707317079,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":0.3321760763888889,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":7.972225833333334,"perDayMove":0.3246045996997114,"perHorizonMove":0.18708494691775454,"terminalVariance":0.069375,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.009999999999999995,"var99":0.365,"es95":0.1337837837837837,"es90":0.07118055555555548,"es99":0.3833333333333333,"esTailConcentration":3.9862089641732896,"ulcerIndex":0.8169974748734445,"cdar95":0.8915789473684215,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.89,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.91,"drawdownPeak":0.5,"drawdownTrough":0.045,"drawdownDurationBars":517},"structure":{"hurst":0.9581209051580494,"autocorr1":-0.4179089703006639,"autocorr2":-0.24088129549224335,"trendT":-4.360674242976769,"halfLifeMR":1.472671657696406,"permEntropy":0.5549629988845705,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.8396624472573839,"rollSpreadBps":8652.831430684084},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":23574.23783282096,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":317.2417464551807,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":125.04863761577155,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":166.65235402293715,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":283.73842440969565,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":317.2417464551807,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":438.0815080589211,"p":0,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-13.22138151876248,"p":2.697890793841494e-15,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":0.6153232874494501,"p":0.021243337504595443,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":4.651291543185548,"p":0.0000033022489973610902,"reject":true,"runs":95,"n1":63,"n2":72},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-9.483261162193719,"p":0,"reject":true,"vr":0.33557346543012406,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}