{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-ethereum-above-1800-on-june-19-2026","type":"pm","now":1781788529364,"market":{"id":"2518183","slug":"ethereum-above-1800-on-june-19-2026","question":"Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?","yesProb":0.13,"noProb":0.87,"liquidity":12550.9987,"volume24h":32397.71373,"endDate":"2026-06-19T16:00:00Z","category":"Crypto"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781788524350,"ageMs":5014,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":142,"range":{"min":0.085,"max":0.69,"span":0.605},"moments":{"mean":0.25774647887323937,"stdev":0.16922599923564036,"cv":0.6565598877448343,"skew":0.7539413566360701,"kurtosis":-0.8152811494438712,"ci95":{"lo":0.22991226330929426,"hi":0.2855806944371845,"halfWidth":0.027834215563945112}},"returns":{"mean":-0.00010638297872340435,"stdev":0.04310066325768407,"annualisedVol":4.034001045821624,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.9914529914529909,"skew":0.26884943920071525,"kurtosis":4.81076726560198,"gainToPain":0.9914529914529909,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":1.1142434722222223,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":26.741843333333335,"perDayMove":0.21114926511369786,"perHorizonMove":0.2228843747609702,"terminalVariance":0.1131,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.07499999999999993,"var99":0.10599999999999997,"es95":0.10375,"es90":0.07766666666666668,"es99":0.14500000000000002,"esTailConcentration":1.581469648562302,"ulcerIndex":0.40441509866369774,"cdar95":0.8309178743961352,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.8043478260869565,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.8768115942028986,"drawdownPeak":0.69,"drawdownTrough":0.085,"drawdownDurationBars":62},"structure":{"hurst":0.9386303137462548,"autocorr1":-0.005282921917698426,"autocorr2":0.18763720031334977,"trendT":5.474176610256652,"halfLifeMR":21.39112677023735,"permEntropy":0.9855814488222465,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.2014388489208633,"rollSpreadBps":244.019646924464},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":137.66653538477752,"p":1.2767082648571173e-30,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":8.035058338320217,"p":0.15305277817188756,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":0.004019532070000668,"p":0.9053461048668603,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":5.111165122113859,"p":0.07565589100569059,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":5.177067817648496,"p":0.1574372995496871,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":8.035058338320217,"p":0.15305277817188756,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":11.64067644450783,"p":0.30940976697867817,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-1.4899285451175075,"p":0.5381292642297584,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":1.0349288360372588,"p":0.0019332649276195574,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":1.4947257432912626,"p":0.13498609529609862,"reject":false,"runs":65,"n1":52,"n2":61},"varianceRatio":{"stat":1.2193725896186507,"p":0.22270293545981823,"reject":false,"vr":1.192114831446397,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}