{"ok":true,"asset":"kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-gn","type":"kalshi","now":1781959727808,"market":{"ticker":"KXPRESNOMD-28-GN","title":"Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?","yesProb":0.24,"noProb":0.765,"yesBid":0.23,"yesAsk":0.24,"volume24hUsd":3677.2103999999995,"openInterestUsd":3069470.17,"closeTime":"2028-11-07T15:00:00Z","category":"Elections"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781959694165,"ageMs":33643,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":689,"range":{"min":0.21,"max":0.26,"span":0.05000000000000002},"moments":{"mean":0.2284034833091427,"stdev":0.011260901155132516,"cv":0.049302668207957916,"skew":-0.17286531970510574,"kurtosis":-0.8904324127940386,"ci95":{"lo":0.22756263122147985,"hi":0.22924433539680555,"halfWidth":0.0008408520876628409}},"returns":{"mean":-0.000014534883720930205,"stdev":0.0070452741189195095,"annualisedVol":0.6594015269302017,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.9937888198757764,"skew":0.05212775640347125,"kurtosis":-0.2651883039949494,"gainToPain":0.9937888198757764,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":871.0911133333333,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":20906.186719999998,"perDayMove":0.03451465337877826,"perHorizonMove":1.0186742021968302,"terminalVariance":0.1771,"resolvedFrom":"closeTime","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.010000000000000009,"var99":0.010000000000000009,"es95":0.01050000000000001,"es90":0.01050000000000001,"es99":0.01050000000000001,"esTailConcentration":null,"ulcerIndex":0.07664802897613392,"cdar95":0.125,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.125,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.125,"drawdownPeak":0.24,"drawdownTrough":0.21,"drawdownDurationBars":300},"structure":{"hurst":0.6855409465331863,"autocorr1":-0.43695627774742024,"autocorr2":-0.04692103350273799,"trendT":-4.774958052849675,"halfLifeMR":3.1738366616391627,"permEntropy":0.9343289894734622,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.641399416909621,"rollSpreadBps":408.0942450962146},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":2.327562724422213,"p":0.3123030144846765,"reject":false},"ljungBox":{"stat":140.5645361845932,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":131.93400872495297,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":133.4575301017906,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":133.67208749551338,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":140.5645361845932,"p":0,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":144.23684048598483,"p":0,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-8.65641490790125,"p":1.9542001952594873e-9,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":2.20528598305486,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":16.644565763496907,"p":0,"reject":true,"runs":303,"n1":154,"n2":157},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-9.725666459077317,"p":0,"reject":true,"vr":0.30631999802507276,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"normal"}}}